Williams: The Country Can’t Pretend Its Way Around Flattening the Curve — Especially If We Want to Reopen Schools Soon
The year 2020 has brought about rapid changes in our lives. On July 8, the Trump administration intervened in the debate regarding the reopening of schools, issuing a threat to withhold federal funding from communities that chose not to resume in-person schooling in the autumn. However, by July 14, a poll conducted by Axios-Ipsos revealed that the majority of Americans were not convinced that it was safe to send their children back to school in person for the fall semester. As a result, some of the largest school districts in the country, including Los Angeles and San Diego, announced that they would begin the 2020-21 school year with online classes.
In response to this situation, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany took the podium on July 16 to clarify the administration’s stance on reopening schools. She stated, "The science should not hinder this decision," and further quoted Dr. Scott Atlas from the Hoover Institution, saying, "We can definitely do it as other Western countries, our peer nations, have already done so. We are the exception in this case. The evidence is very clear."
However, despite these claims, the reality is quite different. It is true that the United States is currently an outlier among developed nations. Other countries have successfully emerged from the recession caused by the pandemic, resumed their professional sports leagues, and reopened their schools.
Nevertheless, it is also true that the United States remains an outlier in its failure to contain and control the pandemic. The country continues to experience a dramatic surge in new coronavirus cases. On the same day that McEnany advocated for school reopening, the U.S. reported over 75,000 new cases of the virus, despite having a population of only around 330 million. In comparison, Germany, with a population just over 80 million, has recorded approximately 200,000 cases in total.
There clearly seems to be a fault in our response to the coronavirus. If the science unequivocally supports reopening schools, then how can it also pose a risk to this process?
Fortunately, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) released a new report earlier this month titled "Reopening Schools During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prioritizing Health, Equity, and Communities."
Contrary to McEnany’s statements, the researchers consistently highlight the lack of data on COVID-19 risks, especially for children with underlying health conditions such as asthma. The authors assert that it is not possible to establish clear guidelines regarding which children are at a sufficiently high risk to require alternative educational methods. Moreover, there is insufficient evidence to determine the contagiousness of children and their susceptibility to contracting the virus. A recent study from South Korea even suggests that children above the age of 10 may have higher rates of COVID-19 transmission. Research on the role of schools in spreading the virus has produced mixed results, and the transmission of the virus through airborne means, particularly in poorly ventilated schools, remains uncertain. Finally, the researchers could not reach a consensus on the measures schools should adopt to prevent the spread of the virus upon reopening. However, they did emphasize the importance of prioritizing measures such as mask-wearing, handwashing, social distancing, and avoiding large gatherings.
These findings align with my previous argument that the combination of uncontrolled spread of the coronavirus and uncertainty about the specific risks to children and teachers makes it extremely challenging to envision a safe reopening of schools for in-person instruction this fall. In Israel, schools played a significant role in triggering and amplifying a second wave of the pandemic. Increased testing in Australia has also revealed greater evidence of children transmitting the virus more than initially believed. Health officials in Florida are warning that even asymptomatic children who contract the virus could experience persistent lung damage.
Even worse, there is significant evidence, including within the report, that the health impacts of the pandemic are unequally distributed among diverse groups of Americans. Communities of color are disproportionately affected, with higher rates of contracting and dying from the virus. This pattern also applies to children. A recent report from UnidosUS indicates that almost 54 percent of U.S. children who have contracted the coronavirus are Latino, which is double their representation among the overall child population (25 percent). Presumably, this disparity would only worsen if schools were to reopen soon, with the pandemic still largely uncontrolled and a probable second wave approaching in the autumn.
Despite the current uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, the NASEM report suggests that schools should prioritize reopening with full-time, in-person instruction for grades K-5 and students with special needs. This decision is based on existing health data and the recognition that the extended closure of schools has negative effects on students’ learning, particularly for marginalized communities. Remote learning has proven to be ineffective, and many children are struggling with the isolation caused by social distancing measures. However, it is important to acknowledge the public health risks associated with reopening schools. The country’s response to the pandemic has been inadequate, and it is unlikely that we will meet the necessary conditions to safely reopen schools in the fall. The report recognizes the need for a blend of in-person and distance learning, as well as providing schools with necessary supplies and protective measures. Educators, especially those at higher risk, are hesitant to return to in-person teaching, and addressing their concerns is crucial. Reopening schools will require significant investments to mitigate health risks, including purchasing masks, improving air ventilation, and modifying physical infrastructure. However, many schools are facing budget cuts due to the economic impact of the pandemic. Without substantial financial support from the federal and state governments, communities most affected by COVID-19 will experience even worse health outcomes when schools reopen.
